Intel: Putin Thinks He Can Outsmart US 02/10 06:21

   Russian President Vladimir Putin has no desire to halt Russia's almost 
4-year-old invasion of neighboring Ukraine and thinks he can "outsmart" the 
United States during talks with Washington about how to end the war, a senior 
European intelligence official told The Associated Press.

   LONDON (AP) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin has no desire to halt 
Russia's almost 4-year-old invasion of neighboring Ukraine and thinks he can 
"outsmart" the United States during talks with Washington about how to end the 
war, a senior European intelligence official told The Associated Press.

   Kaupo Rosin, the head of Estonia's foreign intelligence service, said Moscow 
is playing for time in the talks with Washington and "there is absolutely no 
discussion about how to really cooperate with the U.S. in a meaningful way."

   Rosin, who spoke at an online briefing with reporters ahead of the 
publication of Estonia's annual security report on Tuesday, said the findings 
were based on intelligence his country gathered from "Russian internal 
discussions." He did not elaborate on how the information was obtained but said 
the discussions showed that Russian officials believe that Washington remains 
Moscow's "main enemy."

   The Estonian report says Russia is unlikely to attack NATO this year or next 
but that Moscow remains dangerous as it tries to build up its armed forces.

   Russian officials have publicly insisted they want a negotiated deal, but 
they show little willingness to compromise and remain adamant their demands 
must be met.

   U.S.-brokered talks between envoys from Russia and Ukraine in recent weeks 
have been described by officials from both sides as constructive and positive, 
but there has been no sign of any progress on key issues in the discussions.

   Russian President Vladimir Putin, "in his head, still thinks that he can 
actually militarily win (in Ukraine) at some point," Rosin said.

   A White House official responded to the Estonian intelligence chief's 
comments and said the president's negotiators had made "tremendous progress" on 
the talks to end the war in Ukraine. Although prisoner exchanges have happened 
sporadically since May, they pointed in particular to a recent agreement in Abu 
Dhabi among the U.S., Ukraine and Russia to release more than 300 prisoners.

   That agreement was evidence that efforts to end the war are advancing, said 
the official, who was granted anonymity because they did not have permission to 
speak publicly.

   In an indication that U.S. President Donald Trump wants to accelerate the 
momentum of peace efforts, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last 
week that Washington has given Ukraine and Russia a June deadline to reach a 
settlement. Trump over the past year has set several deadlines that have come 
and gone without apparent consequences.

   Fiona Hill, a Russia expert and adviser to Trump in his first term, said 
Trump and his officials are spinning a story that depicts the U.S. president as 
a peacemaker and, for that reason, they are not interested in changing their 
assessment that Putin wants to end the war.

   Both leaders, she told the AP, "need their version of events to play out" 
and are hanging on to their version of the truth -- Putin as the victor in 
Ukraine and Trump as the dealmaker.

   It's unclear why US officials believe Putin wants peace

   Russian bombardments of Ukraine have continued unabated.

   On Tuesday morning, Russian glide bombs killed an 11-year-old girl and her 
mother in the eastern Donetsk region, regional chief Vadym Filashkin said. 
Seven others, including a 7-year-old girl, were injured.

   During the night, at least five people were wounded, including a toddler and 
two children, in Russian drone attacks across Ukraine, regional authorities 
said.

   Although Trump has repeatedly suggested that Putin wants peace, he has 
sometimes appeared frustrated with the Russian leader's lukewarm approach to 
talks.

   From an intelligence perspective, Rosin said he doesn't know why U.S. 
officials believe the Russian leader wants to end the war.

   Hill, who served as a national intelligence officer under previous U.S. 
administrations, said it's unclear what intelligence information Trump gets on 
Russia -- or if he reads it.

   He relies heavily on his lead negotiators, special envoy Steve Witkoff and 
son-in-law Jared Kushner, who Hill said may struggle to believe that the damage 
to the Russian economy caused by the war is a price Putin is willing to pay for 
Ukraine.

   Referring to reports that Witkoff has attended meetings with Putin without a 
U.S. State Department translator, she questioned if Trump's envoys understood 
what was being said in meetings and suggested officials may be "selectively" 
looking for what they want to hear.

   Being told what they want to hear

   Putin is fixated on controlling all of Ukraine and the idea "is so deep in 
his head" that it takes priority over anything else, including economics, Rosin 
said, suggesting that the conflict will continue in some form for several years.

   He said Putin's position may change only if the situation in Russia, or on 
the front line, becomes "catastrophic," threatening his power. For now, the 
Russian leader still believes he can take Ukraine and "outsmart everybody," 
Rosin said.

   One reason Putin thinks he can win militarily in Ukraine is because he is 
"definitely" getting some incorrect information from his officials, the 
Estonian intelligence chief said.

   Not all Russian officials, however, believe they are winning the war in 
Ukraine, Rosin said.

   "The lower you go in the food chain," the more people understand "how bad it 
is actually on the ground," he said, whereas higher up, officials are more 
optimistic because they are given more positive reports. Rosin cited examples 
of officials being told Russian forces had captured Ukrainian settlements when 
that was not true.

   The reports that arrive at Putin's desk may be "much more optimistic" than 
the situation on the ground because Putin only wants to see success, Rosin said.

   Hill said both Trump and Putin are probably being told what they want to 
hear by people who want to please them.